Generative Social Science:
Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling
Joshua M. Epstein

Introduction xi

Prelude to Chapter 1: The Generativist Manifesto 1
Chapter 1: Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 4

Prelude to Chapter 2: Confession of a Wandering Bark 47
Chapter 2: Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 50

Prelude to Chapter 3: Equilibrium, Explanation, and Gausss Tombstone 72
Chapter 3: Non-Explanatory Equilibria: An Extremely Simple Game with (Mostly) Unattainable Fixed Points by Joshua M. Epstein and Ross A. Hammond 75
Appendix to Chapter 3: Large Effect of a Subtle Rule Change 86

Prelude to Chapters 4-6: Generating Civilizations: The 1050 Project and the Artificial Anasazi Model 88
Chapter 4: Understanding Anasazi Culture Change through Agent-Based Modeling Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Joshua M. Epstein, Robert L. Axtell, Alan C. Swedlund, Miles T. Parker, and Stephen McCarroll 90

Chapter 5: Population Growth and Collapse in a Multiagent Model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jason Harburger, Shubha Chakravarty, Ross Hammond, Jon Parker, and Miles Parker 117

Chapter 6: The Evolution of Social Behavior in the Prehistoric American Southwest by George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jeffrey S. Dean, and Joshua M. Epstein 130

Prelude to Chapter 7: Generating Patterns in the Timing of Retirement 144
Chapter 7: Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement by Robert L. Axtell and Joshua M. Epstein 146

Prelude to Chapter 8: Generating Classes without Conquest 175
Chapter 8: The Emergence of Classes in a Multi-Agent Bargaining Model by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, and H. Peyton Young 177

Prelude to Chapter 9: Generating Zones of Cooperation in the Prisoners Dilemma Game 196
Chapter 9: Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoners Dilemma by Joshua M. Epstein 199
Appendix to Chapter 9: Generating Norm Maps in the Demographic Coordination Game 222

Prelude to Chapter 10: Generating Thoughtless Conformity to Norms 225
Chapter 10: Learning to be Thoughtless: Social Norms and Individual Computation by Joshua M. Epstein 228

Prelude to Chapter 11: Generating Patterns of Spontaneous Civil Violence 245
Chapter 11: Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 247

Prelude to Chapter 12: Generating Epidemic Dynamics 271
Chapter 12: Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein, Derek A.T. Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty, Ramesh M. Singha, and Donald S. Burke 277

Prelude to Chapter 13: Generating Optimal Organizations 307
Chapter 13: Growing Adaptive Organizations: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 309

Coda 345
Index 349